METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS

Southwest monsoon has further withdrawn from some more parts of East Madhya Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region and the remaining parts of Saurashtra & Kutch and north Arabian Sea. The withdrawal line passes through Bahraich, Allahabad, Umaria, Seoni, Khandwa, Surat, 20( N/ 69( E and 20( N/ 60( E.
Yesterday's low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Orissa-Gangetic West Bengal coast moved north-northeastwards and became well marked. It now lies over southern parts of Gangetic West Bengal & neighbourhood. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid-tropospheric levels. Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls is likely over northeastern States and West Bengal & Sikkim during next 2-3 days.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over Saurashtra & Kutch and adjoining southeast Pakistan has become less marked.
A western disturbance as an upper air system lies over north Pakistan and neighbourhood.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL(cm)

Monsoon activity and rainfall distribution map enclosed
Significant rainfall amounts (1 cm or more) list enclosed.

FORECAST VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

NORTH: Isolated rain/thundershowers likely over East Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Isolated rain/thundershowers also likely over Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir after 24hours. Mainly dry weather is likely in the rest region.
EAST: Rain/thundershowers likely at most places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, West Bengal & Sikkim; at many places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura; at a few places over north Orissa, Bihar and Jharkhand and isolated over rest region outside East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where weather may be mainly dry. Rainfall activity over Gangetic West Bengal will decrease after 24 hours.
SOUTH: Rain/thundershowers likely at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and isolated in the rest region.
WEST: Isolated rain/thundershowers likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada. Mainly dry weather is likely in the rest region.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at a few places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya and West Bengal & Sikkim and isolated over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura.

OUTLOOK FOR SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS

Moderate rainfall activity is likely over south peninsula and northeastern States.

Note: This is the last bulletin of Southwest Monsoon season 2005.
End-of-Season Report will follow.